COVID-19 Sickness Quotient, can we predict the end of pandemic?

We present the behavior of COVID-19 “sickness quotient” for the selected countries.
As in the previous article, we use data published by [1] and provided by [2] for the following countries: Brazil, Germany, Italy, US, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland.
Sickness quotient is defined as follows:

$$S = \frac{N_{\mathrm{confirmed}} – N_{\mathrm{deaths}} – N_{\mathrm{recovered}}}{N_{\mathrm{confirmed}}}, $$
Where \(N_{\mathrm{confirmed}}\) is a total number of confirmed infections since the beginning of the pandemic, \(N_{\mathrm{deaths}}\) is a number of deaths caused by the virus and \(N_{\mathrm{recovered}}\) is a number of infected people who have been recovered. A simple moving average with window size 3 has been used in order to smooth the curve. We keep the convention used in many other publications – the plot starts at the date when the number of infected people is at least 100 for each country.

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